Will Economic Indicators Affect FHA Multifamily Mortgage Rates?
Today the Jobs report stated that 148,000 non-farms jobs were added in September when the consensus expectation was 185,000 jobs were to be added. This gap has led the 10 year Treasury yields to drop from 2.60% to 2.52%, the lowest they have been since mid-July.
So what does that mean for FHA Multifamily rates? As I said in an earlier blog post, two things are keeping rates high.
First, there are a lot of REMICs that are still underwater, needing the high interest rates of new securities to leaven the entire REMIC so as to increase the weighted average coupon from earlier purchases. This hangover continues. The security buyers are trying to hold investor coupons above 4% so as to be able to curtail losses on those underwater loans bought before the Bernanke pronouncements in May.
Secondly, the investors in the securities have been expecting higher yields next year, based on tapering the purchases by the Fed. This made it likely that next summer’s rates would be much higher than today’s rates, causing investors to want the higher rates expected next year. Securities have been priced accordingly.
With today’s Jobs report, and the weak data probably coming out over the next few weeks, it is likely that the Qualitative Easing will continue. If rates stay low, the large spreads, especially in new construction under the 221 (d) 4, will have to narrow, bringing rates down.
As an interested party, what should you be looking for as a sign of lowering rates? If the 10 year Treasury bond continues/stabilizes in the 2.50% range, rates should be coming down sooner rather than later.
Still, you need to be in a position to take advantage of the break if/when it comes. Pursuing a new loan now makes sense. Falling FHA multifamily mortgage rates may be ahead.